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Argentina’s disputed debts

Feeding the vultures

阿根廷的債務爭議
餵養禿鷹

IT MAY have taken 14 years, but the holders of $900m of bonds on which Argentina defaulted(未履行)  in 2001 should soon be repaid. On February 2nd Alfonso Prat-Gay, Argentina’s new finance minister, announced a deal with Italian bondholders worth $1.35 billion, or 150% of the principal([法]委托人，当事人; 本金;). The “pre-agreement” (it still has to be approved by Argentina’s Congress) is fairly small: it covers only 15% of the “holdouts” who rejected restructurings in 2005 and 2010. But it sets an important precedent(前例). The creditors had been seeking $2.5 billion, including outstanding interest payments(未支付利息), and Argentina hopes to persuade the remaining 85% to accept a similar write-down(帳面價值下降). The omens(前兆) for a wider deal, however, are not promising.

拖欠了十四年，高達 90 億美金的阿根廷未履行政府債可望得到清償。今年二月二日，新任的阿根廷財政部長阿方索宣布一項與義大利債券持有人的協議，金額約為 13.5 億美金(本金的 150% ) 。此項尚未獲得國會批准的提案涵蓋範圍不大，僅包括了 2005 年至 2010 年拒絕債務重整的債權人的 15% ，但卻樹立了一個重要的前例。債權人希望獲得包括未支付利息總共 25 億美金的償還，但阿根廷政府希望說服其他 85% 的債權人接受一個帳面價值下降的支付。 

Argentina’s $82 billion sovereign default(主權債務違約) in 2001 was the largest-ever at the time. Some 93% of bondholders subsequently(隨後) agreed to exchange their defaulted debt for new securities(有價證券), accepting a write-down of 65%. But the original bonds had not included “collective-action clauses”(集體行動條款), under which a restructuring could be forced on all bondholders if a certain proportion of them agreed. The remaining creditors rejected the offer, with some pursuing full payment(全額付款) through the courts instead. A group of them, led by Elliott Management, a hedge fund(避險基金；對沖基金), has secured a number of victories in courts in New York, under whose law the original bonds were written. One of those rulings(裁決) barred Argentina from paying interest on the restructured debt(重組債務) unless it also paid the holdouts(釘子戶) in full. The court also forbade banks with operations in America from facilitating(幫助) such payments.

2001年阿根廷的 820 億美金的主權債務違約是有史以來規模最大的，93% 的債券持有人隨後同意接受 65% 減記的新證券，但因原債並沒有納入“集體行動條款” ，也就是在一定比例的債權人同意下可強制做債務重組。其餘的債權人拒絕了這項建議，其中一些並透過法院要求全額償還。一群人在埃利奧特管理公司(一家對沖基金) 的帶領下，在紐約法院獲得勝利。其中一個裁決是，除非阿根廷政府全額支付拒絕接受債務重整的債權人，否則禁止他對重整債務支付利息。法院並禁止與美國有業務來往的銀行資助這項付款。

As a result, Argentina defaulted on the restructured bonds in 2014. (An attempt to get around(迴避) the ruling by making payments to the restructured bondholders in Argentina, beyond the reach of New York’s courts, fizzled(失敗).) The defaults upon defaults have restricted Argentina’s access to international credit markets(國際信貸市場) and hampered (阻礙) efforts to resuscitate(使復甦) its ailing economy(病態經濟). In December Mauricio Macri, Argentina’s new president, took office(上任) promising to strike a deal(達成協議) with the holdouts and return the country to economic health. It helps that a clause(條款) in the restructuring deals obliging Argentina to extend any improved deal  it strikes with the holdouts to all the original bondholders has expired(失效).

其結果是，阿根廷在2014年拖欠了重組債券（以規避紐約法院的裁決，支付阿根廷境內的重組債券持有人支付，但失敗了。）。此一違約後的違約使得阿根廷無法進入國際信貸市場，阻礙了其試圖復甦經濟的努力。十二月，阿根廷新總統毛里西奧·馬克里上任，承諾與釘子戶債權人達成協議並恢復該國經濟健康。在債務重整時所達成的條款的失效對事情是有幫助的，這個條款迫使阿根廷政府必須將所有與  釘子戶債權人  達成的協議   推廣到   所有債權人的身上。 

After preliminary meetings in December and January, Argentine officials opened formal negotiations with Daniel Pollack, a court-appointed mediator(中間人；調解人), and a number of the holdout bondholders in New York on February 1st. The first day of meetings lasted only four hours; Argentina conceded that it was “still working” on a new offer.

在十二月和一月的預備會議後，阿根廷官員開始與法院指定的調解人丹尼爾·波拉克，以及一批在紐約的釘子戶債券持有人在2月1日展開正式談判。第一天的會議只進行了四個小時，阿根廷承認，他還在為新的提議做努力。

Mr Pollack estimates that the holdouts’ claim, including accrued interest(應計利息), now amounts to 400% of the principal, a figure which equates to $9 billion. The holdouts have disdained(不屑) discounted offers from Argentina in the past, and would presumably turn their noses up at(嗤之以鼻) 150%.

波拉克先生估計，釘子戶債券持有人的訴求，包括應計利息，相當於本金的400％的90 億美金的償還，他們不屑接受阿根廷過去提出的折讓，並且也對150％ 本金的支付提議嗤之以鼻。

But Argentina has worked hard in recent weeks to strengthen its negotiating hand. After meeting Mr Prat-Gay on January 21st in Davos, Jack Lew, America’s treasury secretary(財政部長), pledged that the United States would no longer oppose lending to Argentina at the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank. Argentina has also persuaded private banks to lend it money. On January 29th Argentina’s central bank announced that it had secured a $5 billion bridging loan(過渡性貸款) from a group of international banks, including HSBC, JPMorgan Chase and Santander.

最近幾週阿根廷一直努力加強談判技巧，在1 月 21日與普拉特先生見面之後，美國財政部長傑克·盧承諾美國將不再反對阿根廷在世界銀行以及美洲開發銀行貸款。阿根廷並且說服私人銀行借貸給他。在1月29日阿根廷央行宣布，它已經從國際銀行，包括匯豐銀行，摩根大通和桑坦德獲得了$ 50億過渡性貸款。

That eases the immediate pressure(立即的壓力) on Argentina. But Mr Macri’s political programme still hinges(樞紐) on a return to international capital markets. Argentina’s fiscal deficit is an estimated 7% of GDP. The government will need $30 billion in financing(融資) this year, according to Miguel Kiguel, director of EconViews, a local consultancy. The central bank, for its part, has only $30 billion of foreign-exchange reserves(外匯儲備). “Argentina is in a race against time,” he says. “It would be very difficult to raise that kind of money in Argentina.”

這減輕了阿根廷立即的壓力，但馬克里先生的政治綱領仍然取決於重返國際資本市場。阿根廷的財政赤字約佔GDP的7％，根據一家當地的顧問公司理事米格爾表示，政府今年將需要300 億美金的融資。央行本身只有300 億美金外匯儲備的。 “阿根廷是與時間賽跑，”他說。 “在阿根廷要募集這樣的資金將是非常困難的。”

Any deal with holdout creditors will have to be approved by Congress, where Mr Macri’s party is in a minority. It will take skill to sell an accord to opposition politicians who have spent years resisting a compromise with “vulture funds” like Elliott Management, which bought the debt in question at a hefty discount.

與抵抗債權人的任何協議必須得到國會的批准，然而馬克里先生的黨是少數黨，他必須要非常有技巧才能把這個想法推銷給數年來努力抵制禿鷹基金的反對派政治家。例如專門以大幅折扣買入問題債務的艾略特管理公司。

During the first round of restructuring in 2005 Argentina introduced the “Ley Cerrojo” (Padlock Law) which was intended to prevent negotiations from being re-opened at a later date. It was suspended for a year to enable a second restructuring in 2010, but remains on the books. The law under which Argentina attempted to steer money to the holders of the restructured bonds could also impede(阻礙) the ratification(批准) of any new deal. “Congress will have to repeal (廢除) them,” says Mr Kiguel.

在第一回合，阿根廷於 2005 年推出了禁止債務重組法，防止談判在日後被重啟，此法案被擱置一年使 2010 年的債務重整得以進行，但最終仍然生效。阿根廷試圖引導資金給重組債券的持有人的法律同時也可能會阻礙任何新的交易的批准。 “國會將必須廢除他們，”Kiguel先生說。

Many Argentines dislike the idea of rewarding the holdouts for their obstinacy(固執). But Mr Macri may like the idea of a distracting feud(世仇；爭執) with them even less.

許多阿根廷人不喜歡這些獎勵釘子戶的想法，但馬克里先生可能會喜歡使他們分散注意力以減少宿怨。

 順便研究一下相關文章：

【蘇教授論經濟】禿鷹基金的金權政治（蘇偉文）(2015/07/28)

槓上禿鷹基金 阿根廷債務違約(2014/08/01)

• 2001 阿根廷爆發金融危機，當時政府宣布停止償還九五○億美元的到期外債，被迫進行債務重整
• 2005-2010  阿根廷政府成功與逾九成的債權人達成債務重整協議，以新債換舊債的方式，減免七成債務。不過，以美國避險基金NML Capital公司為代表的一些投資人不願接受債務重整，並透過國際訴訟，要求阿國全額支付違約債務。這批投資人被稱為「禿鷹基金」。
• 2012 年    紐約聯邦法院法官裁定，阿根廷須向不願參與債務重整的債權人償付利息；經過上訴，美國最高法院裁定阿國須在 2014 年七月三十日前償還十三．三億美元利息。
• 2014 年    阿根廷政府於六月三十日向美國紐約銀行轉帳五．三九億美元，用以支付同意債務重整的債權人利息，但遭紐約聯邦法院法官葛里薩擋下，認為美國避險基金債權人優先擁有索賠權。
• NML Capital等避險基金擁有的阿根廷債券不過十三．三億美元，阿根廷擁有足夠的外匯存底可全額償還；該國不願退讓的理由是，若屈服避險基金的要求，其他已接受減免債務的債權人將比照辦理，屆時阿根廷負債將倍增至一五○億美元