寄生草莓的英文俱樂部

原文出處：The Economist Drift and Dissent

基於尊重智慧財產權，所有的原文都以反白處理，閱讀原文請轉至經濟學人網頁。

NOT long ago it all looked so much better: oil prices were high, the middle classes were growing and the autocrat-father of the state, Nursultan Nazarbayev, presided over 17m grateful subjects. Yet today the situation in Kazakhstan looks more troubling than at any time since the country broke free of the Soviet Union to become, against the odds, Central Asia’s most prosperous state. To many, Mr Nazarbayev’s promise of a “Kazakh dream” now seems like a sick joke.

不久前這一切看起來如此美好：油價高，中產階級的不斷成長，和獨裁之父納扎爾巴耶夫領導著一千七百萬的和藹可親的子民。然而，今天在哈薩克斯坦陷入自掙脫蘇聯統治以來最令人不安的景況。原先鶴立中亞地區的最繁華的國家，對許多人來說，納扎爾巴耶夫先生所承諾的哈薩克之夢，如今看來就像一個病態的笑話。

An overreliance on oil is what makes the Kazakh economy so fragile. Since the price crashed, export revenues have tumbled. The currency, the tenge, has fallen by half since August. That has squeezed wages and savaged household consumption. An economy that grew by over 5% in 2013 may contract this year, for the first time since 1998. It has not helped that growth is stalling in China, Kazakhstan’s second largest trading partner, while Russia, its largest, is now deep in recession.

對石油的過度依賴是使得哈薩克經濟如此脆弱的原因，由於油價崩潰，出口收入下跌，該國貨幣堅戈自8月份以來貶值了一半，壓縮了工資也嚴重衝擊家庭消費。在2013年增長超過5％的經濟，在今年可能會萎縮，這是自1998年以來的第一次。俄羅斯，哈薩克最大的貿易夥伴，已經陷入了不景氣之中。

All this is hurting ordinary folk. In a rare protest in a closely controlled state, two dozen homeowners(房主) gathered outside a bank in Almaty, the commercial capital, last week. They were complaining about their mortgages(抵押貸款), and they are unlikely to be the last to do so. Many mortgages are denominated(計價) in dollars, so the cost of servicing them has soared.

所有這一切都對民眾造成傷害。一個罕見的抗議出現在嚴格控管區，二十多名屋主聚集在哈薩克的商業首都阿拉木圖一家銀行外，由於他們的抵押貸款都是以美元計價，由於堅戈的貶值，造成他們的成本提高。

The government is dealing with the financial crunch(財政緊縮) with an odd mix of stimulus and austerity(簡樸). On the stimulus side is a $9-billion investment package to boost non-oil sectors such as manufacturing, as well as perks(補貼) for foreign investors as a fire sale(賤價賣出) of state assets(國有資產) gets under way. Public-sector salaries and pensions have been raised, and schemes introduced to help savers(儲戶) and mortgage holders(抵押貸款者) suffering from the currency’s fall.

政府則以一個混合了刺激生產和緊縮支出的方式處理這個財政緊縮，一方面以$90 億的投資計劃刺激非石油相關業如製造業，並補貼國外投資者，提高公共部門的工資和養老金，並提出計畫幫助在貨幣下跌中受害的儲戶和抵押貸款持有人。

fire-sale   原意為火灾受损物品拍卖，在此可以解釋為賤價出售。

As for austerity, public spending is to be cut in other areas, though in ways supposed to protect the worst-off(最窮苦的). Even a swords-and-stallions TV drama about Kazakh history, intended to create a nobler and more accurate image of Kazakhstan than “Borat”, has lost some of its state funding(政府資助). The budget deficit is likely to balloon despite some help from the sovereign wealth fund.

在緊縮政策上，雖然公共支出在某些方面是對於弱勢人群的保護，但公共支出似乎是最先被縮減的，一個講述哈薩克歷史的節目也因此失掉了政府的資金，這些預算上的赤字即使在政府財富基金的挹注之下仍然沒有減少的趨勢。

As grievances (怨氣) mount, political stability comes into question. The president keeps chanting an all-in-it-together mantra(口頭禪), but the calls for austerity by this head of a fabulously(驚人的) wealthy clan(家族) may wear thin(磨薄). The question is how he might react to signs of greater dissatisfaction. Mr Nazarbayev has run Kazakhstan since before the Soviet Union collapsed, wielding(運用) a very personal sort of power even as international statesmen(政治家) and highly paid public-relations firms have helped to polish a veneer(表層飾版) of liberalism and democracy. Last year Mr Nazarbayev promised a “modern state apparatus(機器)”, and in the past he has talked of(提及) creating a resilient political system. But current conditions can hardly seem to him an opportune(合適的) time for political change. There has been no move towards proper(正式的) reform.

人民的怨氣累積的結果使得政治穩定成為另一個問題。布什總統雖然不斷高呼齊心協力的口號，但這個來自於極端富裕家族的頭頭的簡樸呼籲的聲音似乎顯得薄弱，最大的問題是他將如何應對各種不滿的聲音做出反應。蘇聯解體之前納扎爾巴耶夫先生已經統治了哈薩克斯坦，他運用個人影響力成為一個國際政治家，甚至高薪雇用公關公司製造自由主義和民主的外衣。去年納扎爾巴耶夫先生承諾要打造一個“現代國家機器”，而在過去，他也曾提到要建立一個有彈性的政治制度。但目前的狀況對他而言並不是一個做政治改革的好時機，所有的正式改革都已停擺。

Meanwhile, the regime has kept a heavy lid on dissent(異議) ever since dozens of striking oil workers were gunned down(槍殺) by security forces in Zhanaozen in western Kazakhstan in late 2011. An opposition leader(反對黨領袖), Vladimir Kozlov, is in jail on trumped-up(莫須有) charges of fomenting(煽動) that turmoil(動亂), which prompted(促使) a massive crackdown(大規模鎮壓) on the political opposition and independent media. Last week two dissidents were jailed on spurious(偽造的) charges of inciting(激起) racial hatred, following a Kafkaesque trial sparked by a discussion on Facebook about an unpublished book written two decades ago.

此外，自從 2011 年底爆發的時由工人霸工以來，他一直鎮壓異議者。反對黨領袖，弗拉基米爾·科茲洛夫被以"製造動亂"的莫須有罪名被捕入獄，此事引發了對於反對派以及獨立媒體的大規模鎮壓。上週有兩個反對者被以"煽動種族仇恨"的虛假罪名指控入獄，一段在臉書對於一本成書於二十年前卻從未曾出版的書的討論，引發了對於卡夫卡的審判。

“Presidents come and go,” one of those dissidents, Serikzhan Mambetalin, said during his spirited defence, “But the people remain.” Tell that to Mr Nazarbayev. He turns 76 in July, but shows no sign of going. Not least—and this spells trouble for the future—he has signally failed to provide for his succession.

"總統們來來去去，可是人民始終都在。"一位反對者在他的自辯中如此說道。然而納扎爾巴耶夫先生雖然將在今年七月步入 76 歲，但卻沒有任何要交班的跡象。

Meanwhile, though Mr Nazarbayev would probably win anyway if presidential elections were free and fair, he takes no chances. He won the last election with 98% of the vote; in the past even other presidential candidates voted for the father of the state. In late January Mr Nazarbayev set a date of March 20th for parliamentary elections. Supposedly, they are in order to provide a fresh mandate(任命) to boost growth. In practice they will produce another rubber-stamp(橡皮圖章) legislature to do the president’s bidding. However stage-managed(指揮監督) the elections, they may fail to mask the cracks likely to emerge as the economy slows.

即使總統選舉是自由且公平的，納扎爾巴耶夫仍然很可能會贏得大選。上次大選中他獲得了 98％的選票。在一月下旬納扎爾巴耶夫先生宣布 3月20日為議會選舉，據推測這次大選是為了刺激經濟成長而有新的任命，然而實際上只會為總統的投標製造另一個橡皮圖章式的立法機關。然而不管如何操縱這次的選舉，都無法掩蓋為經濟低迷所造成的裂縫。