寄生草莓的英文俱樂部

Big day imminent; big problems ahead

Adapted from Economist  

imminent = in + min + ent   (a.)即將來臨的,逼近的

prominent = pro + min + ent   (a.)卓越的,顯著的,突出的,突起的,凸出的

eminent = e + min + ent (a.)顯赫的,傑出的,有名的

preeminent = pre + eminent   (a.)優秀的,超群的,卓越的

Iran has complied with the nuclear undertakings that trigger a lifting of sanctions. That was the easy bit

IN HIS valedictory(告別的) state-of-the-union (國情咨文)  address Barack Obama devoted only a few lines to his main foreign-policy achievement: the accord with Iran to restrain its nuclear programme. The words he chose, however, could almost be a summary of the Obama doctrine, if there is such a thing. Contrasting his record with that of predecessors(前輩) who got bogged down(停滯) fighting unwinnable wars, Mr Obama said that there was a “smarter approach” based on “patient and disciplined strategy” and mobilising (動員) “the world to work with us…that’s why we built a global coalition(聯盟), with sanctions(制裁) and principled diplomacy, to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.”

在年度的國情咨文告別演說中，歐巴馬對於他在外交政策上的成只有這樣短短數行的描述："與伊朗達成協議，限制其核武計劃。" 如果有所謂的歐巴馬路線的話，他的這段描述或者可以當作歐巴馬路線的總結。相較於他那些深陷於無法取勝的戰爭的前輩們，歐巴馬認為建基於"有耐心與紀律的策略"是更聰明的方法，並且可以"將全世界動員起來加入我們"。這就是何以我們建立了一個有制裁行動與外交紀律的全球性聯盟，來防止一個核武裝的伊朗。

Mr Obama is justified in hailing the Iran deal as a diplomatic triumph. Some time next week “Implementation Day” is almost certain to be declared. That is the moment when Iran is deemed to have complied with all its obligations in dismantling(拆除) those parts of its nuclear programme that would soon have put it only weeks away from being able to build a bomb. All nuclear-related sanctions will be lifted(解除) or suspended(暫停) (see article).

奧巴馬當然有理由將與伊朗的合約視為外交上的勝利，下週便即將宣布核武限制的實施日，伊朗將拆除境內原將在近日內被組成核彈的核武相關設施。屆時所有對於伊朗核武相關的制裁將被解除或暫停。

The speed with which Iran released two US Navy patrol boats and their crews, after they had unintentionally(無意地) entered Iranian waters on January 12th, was a measure of how America’s relationship with Iran has changed. A call from John Kerry, America’s secretary of state, to his Iranian opposite number, Mohammad Javad Zarif, defused(化解) an incident that would once have escalated(升級) into an international crisis. The co-operation that Iran has shown in decommissioning (退役)　its enrichment centrifuges（濃縮離心機）, removing the core of its heavy-water reactor and shipping out most of its low-enriched uranium stockpile（低濃縮鈾儲備） has surprised arms controllers.

伊朗釋放兩支於1/21 誤闖伊朗海域的美國海軍巡邏艇的速度，似乎可以作為美國與伊朗的關係改變的量尺。美國國家秘書長 John Kerry 與伊朗的 Mohammad Javad Zarif 成功化解了一樁可能會升級為國際危機的事件。伊朗的合作態度，似乎已表明在濃縮離心機役，移除重水反應爐的核心，並運出其大部分低濃縮鈾儲備的行動上，此舉也使得軍備家們感到訝異。

Yet, just as critics of the deal are wrong to describe it as a disaster in which Iran got everything it wanted, its supporters (including this newspaper) need to be realistic about it, too. The smooth progress towards Implementation Day is largely because the president, Hassan Rohani, and Mr Zarif are desperate to get sanctions lifted. They want to see $100 billion of Iranian assets unfrozen before parliamentary elections next month, in which they hope their faction（黨派） will oust（逐出） some of the hardliners（強硬派） who oppose them. Although both back greater engagement with the West for economic reasons (and appear to have the conditional support of the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei), nothing else about Iran’s behaviour shows the slightest sign of change. It still hangs gay people, locks up dissidents（異己） and stokes(燒火） sectarian（宗派） conflict around the Middle East, most destructively in Syria.

這個談判的反對者將之視為一個任由伊朗予取予求的災難，很明顯的他們在這件事情上的描述並不正確。然而支持者也應該對這個現況有現實的體悟，那就是，這一切的進展如此順利純然是由於伊朗的總統 Hassan Rohani 和 Zarif 對於解除制裁已經感到絕望。他們希望伊朗高達一千億美元的資產能夠在下個月的議會選舉前解凍，以便他們藉此能逐出黨派中強硬派的反對者。雖然基於經濟的理由，兩者都支持與西方有更緊密的結合，然而並沒有任何其他的跡象顯示伊朗的作為會有所改變。他們仍然處決同性戀者，囚禁政治異議份子，在中東尤其是敘利亞挑起宗派衝突。

A dose of reality　一劑清醒劑

Supporters of the nuclear deal must also recognise that the smiling Mr Rohani sees it in purely transactional terms（交易條款）: by renouncing（放棄） the pathways to a bomb, Iran gets cash and trade. Hardliners in the regime（政權） still loathe（厭惡） the deal. Iran remains committed to expanding its nuclear programme to “industrial scale”, which it will be able to do, even if the agreement holds, after 15 years. It continues to lie about the military aspects of that programme, which lasted until 2009. And there is every chance that, with the $100 billion in its pocket, Iran will start to test the resolve（決心） of Mr Obama and whoever comes after him.

核武談判的支持者也應該要認識到，這位微笑先生 Rohani 只把這個談判純粹當成一個交易：藉著放棄彈頭來取得金錢和貿易。強硬派對這個條款仍然充滿了厭惡，即使條約仍然成立，伊朗仍可在十五年後得以繼續進行工業規模的核子計畫。伊朗對於核子計畫一直持續到 2009 年的軍事應用持續說謊，因此，在千億美元入袋之後，伊朗極有可能會試圖測試歐巴馬以及其追隨者的決心。

It is understandable that Mr Obama sees the deal with Iran as a vindication（辯護） of his approach to foreign policy. At worst, it helped avoid a war and bought some time, though it is still unclear how much. At best, the deal may help strengthen forces in Iran that favour limited reform. But it will require constant policing（監管） and it is not a solution to the Iranian nuclear problem, let alone（更不用說） a reset of Iran’s fraught relationship with the West.

不難理解，歐巴馬總統將此一談判視為他外交政策的辯護；最差的情況下，這個政策避免了一場戰爭也爭取了一些時間。最好的情況則是，這個談判強化了伊朗境內的改革勢力。然而，這需要持續的監管，這也不是伊朗境內核武問題的解答，更遑論作為一個伊朗與西方國家之間的關係的轉戾點。

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滿有趣的，前一篇使用估狗翻譯文意大概可以中個七八成，略事修改即可。

但是碰到經濟學人的文章，估狗翻譯機就整個不行惹 ...............

顯示結構比較複雜的文章，以目前的估狗翻譯機的能力還是很喘啊 ~~~

但是對於沒有那麼多分詞構句啦，巴拉巴拉修辭結構的中級文體，估狗這隻狗狗還能夠中之八九啦 ~~~