寄生草莓的英文俱樂部

Oil Prices: What’s Behind the Drop? Simple Economics

石油價格下降背後的故事是甚麼？簡單的經濟學

adapted from The New York Times

By CLIFFORD KRAUSS UPDATED January 15, 2016

The oil industry, with its history of booms(榮景) and busts(破產), is in its deepest downturn (低迷) since the 1990s, if not earlier.

Earnings are down for companies that have made record profits in recent years, leading them to decommission roughly two-thirds of their rigs(鑽機) and sharply cut investments in exploration and production. An estimated 250,000 oil workers have lost their jobs, and manufacturing of drilling and production equipment has fallen sharply.

根據石油產業起落的歷史，可以見到，石油價格約是從1990 年代開始陷入前所未有的低迷。

近幾年來公司盈利下降創新低紀錄，致使他們退役大約三分之二的鑽機，並大幅削減在探勘和生產的投資。大約25萬石油工人失去了工作，和鑽井和生產設備的製造也大幅下滑。

The cause is the plunging(價格暴跌) price of a barrel of oil, which has been cut roughly by more than 60 percent since the June 2014.

原因原油價格自2014年六月份大約削減了60％以上。

Prices have recovered a few times last year, but a barrel of oil has already sunk this year to its lowest level since 2004. Executives think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, pretty much the norm over the last decade.

去年原油價格已經回穩了數次，然而卻在今年跌至自 2004 年以來的新低。當局認為，可能需要數年才能讓原油價格回到過去十年平均水準的一桶 90 到  100 美元的水平。

What is the current price of oil?  目前的原油價格是多少？

Brent crude, the main international benchmark(基準), was trading at around $29 a barrel on Saturday.

國際標準布侖特原油上週六交易的價格為每桶 29 美元左右。

The American benchmark was at around $30 a barrel.

美國基準則是在每桶 30 美元左右。

Why has the price of oil been dropping so fast? Why now?

國際原油下跌的原因？以及為什麼是現在？

This a complicated question, but it boils down(歸結起來) to the simple economics of supply and demand.

這是一個複雜的問題，但可以歸結為簡單的經濟學的供需法則。

United States domestic production has nearly doubled over the last several years, pushing out oil imports that need to find another home. Saudi, Nigerian and Algerian oil that once was sold in the United States is suddenly competing for Asian markets, and the producers are forced to drop prices. Canadian and Iraqi oil production and exports are rising year after year. Even the Russians, with all their economic problems, manage to keep pumping.

美國國內原油生產在近幾年來幾乎翻了一倍，這迫使原油進口必須另尋出路。沙烏地，奈及利亞和阿爾及利亞這些原本大量輸入美國的原油輸出國，突然必須在亞洲市場中競爭，而被迫降價。加拿大和伊拉克石油生產和出口逐年增加。即使是俄羅斯人，為了解決經濟問題，企圖透過銷售原油來獲得解決。

There are signs, however, that production is falling in the United States and some other oil-producing countries because of the drop in exploration investments. But the drop in production is not happening fast enough, especially with output from deep waters off the Gulf of Mexico and Canada continuing to build as new projects come online.

有跡象顯示，美國和其他一些石油生產國的石油產量因為探勘投資的減少而正在逐漸下降，但是這個產量下降似乎不夠快速，特別是當墨西哥灣和加拿大的深海石油仍在持續輸出，且仍不斷推出新的計劃。

On the demand side, the economies of Europe and developing countries are weak and vehicles are becoming more energy-efficient. So demand for fuel is lagging a bit. 

需求面上，歐洲以及開發中國家的經濟持續走軟，汽車更為節能的狀況下，對於燃料的需求便落後了。

Who benefits from the price drop?  誰從價格下跌中獲益？ 

Any motorist can tell you that gasoline prices have dropped. Diesel, heating oil and natural gas prices have also fallen sharply.

任何一個駕駛者都可以感受到，汽油價格已經下降。柴油，燃油和天然氣價格也大幅下滑。

The latest drop in energy prices — regular gas nationally now averages under $2 a gallon, roughly down about 14 cents from a year ago — is also disproportionately(不成比例地) helping lower-income groups, because fuel costs eat up a larger share of their more limited earnings.

最近一次的能源價格下跌 - 普通汽油約在$2加侖的平均水平，比去年同期約下降了約14美分 - 由於燃料成本占了低收入族群支出相當大的比利，燃油價格的下跌也對他們造成了相當不成比例的幫助。

Households that use heating oil to warm their homes are also seeing savings.

家庭使用取暖的燃油費用也因此大幅減省。

Who loses? 誰是這一波原油降價的受害者？
For starters, oil-producing countries and states. Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria, Ecuador, Brazil and Russia are just a few petrostates(產油國) that are suffering economic and perhaps even political turbulence(動盪). Persian Gulf states are likely to invest less money around the world, and they may cut aid to countries like Egypt.

對於新興國家，石油生產國和州，將會是這一波的損失者。委內瑞拉，伊朗，奈及利亞，厄瓜多爾，巴西和俄羅斯都只是正在遭受經濟甚至政治動盪的幾個產油國。波斯灣國家很可能會減少在世界各地的投資，也極有可能會削減對於埃及這樣的國家的經濟援助。

In the United States, Alaska, North Dakota, Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana are facing economic challenges.

在美國，阿拉斯加，北達科他州，得克薩斯州，俄克拉荷馬州和路易斯安那州正面臨了經濟上的挑戰。

Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and BP have all announced cuts to their payrolls(薪資) to save cash, and they are in far better shape than many smaller independent oil and gas producers that are slashing (削減) dividends(股利分紅；津貼) and selling assets (資產) as they report net losses. Other companies have slashed their dividends.

雪弗蘭，荷蘭皇家殼牌和BP都宣布削減薪資以節省現金，比起其他較小規模的獨立原油廠商，他們的狀況已經好多了。小規模的原油廠商的財報出現虧損之時，不得不削減股息和出售資產。

About 40 companies in North America have gone into bankruptcy protection.

北美地區大約有四十家公司已進入破產保護程序。

What happened to OPEC? OPEC  發生了甚麼事？
A central factor in the sharp price drops, analysts say, is the continuing unwillingness of OPEC, a cartel(寡頭) of oil producers, to intervene(干預) to stabilize markets that are widely viewed as oversupplied.

分析家認為，另一個原油價格鉅變的核心因素，是石油生產國寡頭組織的 OPEC 不願干預以穩定被廣泛認為是供過於求的市場

Iran, Venezuela, Ecuador and Algeria have been pressing the cartel to cut production to firm up prices, but Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other gulf allies are refusing to do so. At the same time, Iraq is actually pumping more, and Iran is expected to become a major exporter again under the recent nuclear deal.

伊朗，委內瑞拉，厄瓜多爾和阿爾及利亞持續對 OPEC 施壓以穩定油價，但沙特阿拉伯，阿聯酋和其他灣盟都拒絕這樣做。與此同時，伊拉克實際上增加了產量，伊朗有望在最近的核武談判之後再次成為在石油的主要輸出國。

Saudi officials have said that if they cut production and prices go up, they will lose market share and merely benefit their competitors. They say they are willing to see oil prices go much lower, but some oil analysts think they are merely bluffing.

沙特官員表示，如果他們削減產量並使得價格上升，將會失去市占率，這樣的措施只會圖利他們的競爭對手。他們表示願意看到油價繼續走低，但一些石油分析家認為他們只是虛張聲勢。

If prices remain low for another year or longer, the newly crowned King Salman may find it difficult to persuade other OPEC members to keep steady against the financial strains. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the revenues of Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies will slip by $300 billion this year.

如果價格維持在低水平超過一年以上，新加冕的國王薩爾曼可能很難說服其他 OPEC 成員國繼續資金緊縮。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）估計，沙烏地阿拉伯及其他波斯灣盟國的今年的收入將下滑約三千億美金。

Is there a conspiracy to bring the price of oil down?

油價下滑的背後是否有陰謀？
There are a number of conspiracy theories floating around. Even some oil executives are quietly noting that the Saudis want to hurt Russia and Iran, and so does the United States — motivation enough for the two oil-producing nations to force down prices. Dropping oil prices in the 1980s did help bring down the Soviet Union, after all.

有一些陰謀論正四處流傳。一些石油公司管理階層暗中指出，沙烏地阿拉伯想藉此傷害俄羅斯和伊朗，美國亦有此意圖，此一動機促使兩大石油輸出國同時壓低價格。畢竟此一石油降價手段的確在 1980 年代拖垮了蘇聯。

But there is no evidence to support the conspiracy theories, and Saudi Arabia and the United States rarely coordinate smoothly. And the Obama administration is hardly in a position to coordinate the drilling of hundreds of oil companies seeking profits and answering to their shareholders.

但是並沒有確切的證據支持此一陰謀論，且沙烏地阿拉伯與美國鮮少有和諧的合作關係。而奧巴馬政府也很難尋求一個位置，協調數以百計的石油廠商，並回答他們的股東的提問，並從中牟利。

When are oil prices likely to recover?

何時原油價格才會回穩？
Not anytime soon. Oil production is not declining fast enough in the United States and other countries, though that could begin to change this year.

預計將不會太快。美國和其他國家的原油產量雖有下滑但不夠快速，不過可望在今年看到改變。

Demand for fuels is recovering in some countries, and that could help crude(原油) prices recover in the next year or two. There is now little or no spare production capacity to give the market a cushion in case of another crisis in a crucial oil-producing country.

某些國家對於燃料的需求正在復甦，這將有助於原油價格在未來的一年或兩年內回升。如果主要產油國家發生其他的危機，現今已經沒有多餘的生產力提供市場任何緩衝，

The history of oil is of booms and busts followed by more of the same.

石油的歷史，似乎在繁榮和蕭條之間不斷重演。

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在此我必須盛讚估狗翻譯機的原力的大幅增進，相較於之前的蹩腳，估狗翻譯在翻譯語句的選詞和美化已經有相當長足的進步，除了某些複句或是後位修飾法的句子仍然使他昏頭以外，其他都掌握的挺不錯的。看來，以後語言的差異將不會成為不同人種之間的隔閡了，這是否暗示了巴別塔時代的來臨？